I heard an unusual story during a discussion with a friend at work. We had been talking about the occurrence of significant events and whether an unexpected coincidence was possibly caused by some esoteric agent or was just the result of a random statistical possibility. He briefly retold his father's tale of an actual experience. I was so impressed by the story that we later fleshed out the minute details of when, where, and who. We agreed that the story wouldn’t be repeated – nor need be – while any of the primary participants still lived.
The story began when August Oleson, my friend’s father, started his freshman year at a mid-west, state university. A resident of Oakland, California he was in a university half way across the country, because he had received a full scholarship. The scholarship was not one of the common ones for athletes but was for academic performance. He was selected from several score of applicants proposed by the railroad group that operated the California Zephyr one of the nation’s most modern and famous passenger trains in the 1950s and 1960s. August’s father, my friend’s grandfather, had been an engineer on the Zephyr, but died in a collision with a logging truck using an illegal crossing in Colorado. August was just a grade-school kid when his father died and he would only see him two days out of twelve as the train crossed between Oakland and Chicago. The engineers operated on shifts during the 50 hour tours and then had a two day lay-over on each end till the return.
August was moderately surprised during his first term when a professor called roll and called two Olesons, one, first initial “M” and the second, first initial “A”. August saw the “M” raise a hand, a female hand. He saw the “M” Oleson acknowledge him with a smile, perhaps because she wasn’t expecting another Oleson either. Later in the year he learned that the “M” stood for May as she probably discovered the “A” stood for August.
The second semester, August found May was in his physics class. It was rather a rarity in the early 1950s to find females in college physics classes but August found that was her major. She also showed up in Chemistry 101; chemistry was August’s major. Both courses required a lot of homework, and both courses partnered a laboratory sideline which often required team experiments. During these encounters, August and May discovered that they both had been nominated for their scholarships by the railroad organization that ran the California Zephyr. There was an eerie feeling when each of these two students thought how these two coincidences had descended on them; perhaps not powerful singularly but somewhat unusual in pairs. The pondering of the mystery continued through the summer break for each of them.
During their sophomore year, August and May found they were once again class mates; this time in a statistics class. On first introduction one might believe that statistics theory is of interest only to mathematicians. In fact, it is the sharpest tool available to any science that must evaluate data. May and August evaluated the history of their fathers. Where they knew facts they compared father “A” against father “M”:
Both fathers had been engineers on the California Zephyr.
Both fathers had stayed in one of the origin cities during the two day turnaround:
May’s father stayed in San Francisco during turn around there.
August’s father stayed in Chicago when he was not at home in Oakland, CA.
Both fathers had died in a collision in Colorado on the California Zephyr route.
Both fathers were known by the last name Oleson.
Both fathers had a life insurance policy of more than $50,000 face value, payable to the wife and children.
The train that collided with the truck in Colorado had a crew of two engineers who alternated in shifts. Engineer Oleson was on station during the crash.
The children of both the Oakland and the Chicago Oleson families had been named after a month of the year by their father. May, from Chicago, also had a younger sister named June.
When May and August calculated the joint probability of all the data events, they established that May and August were probably brother and sister, each expected to have half of their father’s genes. Now, in the 21st century, determining a persons genome is more automated than making donuts but in the mid 20th century the definition of DNA was just beginning. May wanted proof that she and August had a common father, not giving up on the possibility of multiple coincidences.
The two researchers decided to search their family records. The targets were a photograph of their father and a copy of a marriage certificate for each where the signature of the husband could be compared. They returned from Christmas break, each with a photograph copy and a photostat of the marriage license.
August and May compared the photographs. They had copies of similar photos, a small-scale face of Engineer Oleson waving from the cab of the big Diesel locomotive of the California Zephyr. Though their father died ten years ago, they accepted the photo as the man they remembered. The marriage certificate comparisons looked like they were signed by the same person although one had used initials instead of full first and middle names and the other did not include a middle name. They agreed that they must be brother and sister - a positive conclusion for August but a reluctant one for May..
My friend and I both used statistical analysis often in our profession. We knew that statistics were in routine use compared to the 1960s and many techniques had been extended and refined. The same data August and May had used was applied to modern methods and criteria and it did not result in the bull’s eye conclusion that August assumed.
Now in 2016, an analysis of DNA from blood or saliva could provide a detailed genome analysis for a few hundred dollars. My friend and I split the costs and he carried the ball in convincing his father and his “Aunt” May to provide saliva samples for the tests. We also used internet searches to learn about the railroad, the details of the Colorado accident, and genealogical data worked up by others from family records, government records, and passenger ship manifests.
The DNA comparisons indicated that August and May shared less than 1% similarity in their genes. They were further than 5th cousins. The genealogy records were completely swamped by the common occurrence of the Oleson last name among Scandinavians. With the variation excluding the “e” and the use of a -son or -sen ending, the window expanded proportionately.
I was told that August and May each shed some tears as they found at an advanced age that someone they had grown very fond of in their youth had been separated from them by an unfortunate misinterpretation of coincidences.
***
No comments:
Post a Comment